Effectiveness of Single and Double Exponential Smoothing: SES, ARRSES and Holt’s Linear for Time Series Data Prediction with Trend and Non-seasonal Characteristic (Covid-19 Vaccinate Case)

Efektivitas Metode Exponential Smoothing untuk Prediksi Data Runtun Waktu Pola Tren dan Non-musiman (Studi Kasus Cakupan Vaksinasi Covid-19)

Authors

  • Wiwik Wiyanti Statistics Department, Matana University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20956/j.v20i1.27193

Keywords:

exponential, SES, ARRSES, forecast, holt’s

Abstract

Purpose of this research is effectiveness the exponential smoothing for predict the time series data which has trend and non-seasonal characteristic. In this research using data case vaccinate of covid-19 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th. The advantage of this research is we can choose the best method for this type data. The methodology of this research is quantitative, with analyze data method is exponential smoothing (SES, ARRSES, and HOLT’S linear). The result of data analyze is the predict error for four vaccinate data are very close to zero. SES gets 0% to 0,73%, ARRSES gets 0% to 0,66% and Holt’s linear gets 0% to 0,29%. The result of this research can conclude that exponential smoothing method effective for predict the data with trend and non-seasonal data.  

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Azzahra, A., Ramadhan, W. & Kifti, W.M., 2022. Single Exponential smoothing: Metode Peramalan Kebutuhan Vaksin campak. EDUMATIC: Jurnal Pendidikan Informatika Vol. 6 No. 2, Desember, 2022, Hal. 215-223. DOI:10.29408/edumatic.v6i2.6299

https://vaksin.kemkes.go.id/#/vaccines (diakses 19 Januari 2023)

https://www.who.int/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants (diakses 13 Januari 2023).

Ihsan, N.H.A.S.A., Dzakiyah, H.H. & Liantoni., F., 2020. Perbandingan Metode Single Exponential smoothing dan Metode Holt untuk Prediksi Kasus Covid-19 di Indonesia. ULTIMATICS, Vol.XII, No.2, ISSN 2085-4552

Kahraman, E. & Akay, O., 2022. Comparison of exponential smoothing methods in forecasting global prices of main metal. Springer Nature. Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13563-022-00354-y

Makridakis, S.G., Wheelwright, S.C., & Hyndman, R. J., 1997. Forecasting Methods and Applications, Third Edition. Wiley. ISBN: 0471532339, 9780471532330.

Mulyana, W., Aryanto & Aprilia, M., 2022. Penerapan Metode Single Exponential smoothing untuk Prediksi Kasus Covid-19 di Kabupaten Bengkalis. Jurnal Computer Science and Information Technology (CoSciTech). P-ISSN:2723-567X. e-ISSN: 2723-5661

Pamungkas, A., Puspasari, R., Nurfiarini, A., Zulkarnain, R. & Waryano, W., 2021. Comparison of Exponential smoothing Methods for Forecasting Marine Fish Production in Pekalongan Waters Central Java. IOP Conf.Series:Earth Environmental Science 934(2021)012016. doi:10.1088/1755-1315/934/1/012016

Ratnawati, 2023. 11 Varian Virus Corona dari Berbagai Negara. https://www.siloamhospitals.com/informasi-siloam/artikel/11-varian-virus-covid-19-dari-berbagai-negara-dunia (diakses 13 Januari 2023)

Rokom, 2021. Studi Terbaru: Vaksin Covid-19 Efektif Mencegah Perawatan dan Kematian. Jakarta. https://sehatnegeriku.kemkes.go.id/baca/rilis-media/20210812/4238277/studi-terbaru-vaksin-covid-19-efektif-mencegah-perawatan-dan-kematian/ (13 Januari 2023)

Shastri, S., Sharma, A., Mansotra, V., Sharma, A., Bhadwal, A.S. & Kumari, M, 2018. A Study on Exponential smoothing Method for Forecasting. International Journal of Computer Sciences and Engineering, Volume-6, Apr 2018, E-ISSN 2347-2693

Tju, T.E.E., Maylawati, D.S., Munawar, G. & Utomo S., 2021. Prediction of the Covid-19 Vaccination Target Achiement with Exponential Regression. JISA(Jurnal Informatika dan Sains) Vol. 04, No. 02, Desember 2021. E-ISSN:2614-8404, p-ISSN:2776-3234.

Yanti, R., Agustin, W. & Nasution, T., 2022. Prediksi Vaksinasi COVID-19 Dosis Lengkap Beberapa Provinsi di Indonesia Menggunakan Model ARIMA. JURNAL SISFOTENIKA Vol. 12 No 1, Januari 2022, p-ISSN: 2087-7897; e-ISSN: 2460-5344, DOI:10.30700/jst.v12i1.1216

Yuwono, N.R. & Yulianto, S., 2022. Perbandingan Berbagai Metode Exponential smoothing untuk Peramalan Covid di Indonesia. Jurnal Penerapan Teknologi Informasi dan Komunikasi IT-EXPLORE. ISSN 2828-7940, e-ISBN 2829-1727 Volume 01 Nomor 02 Tahun 2022.

WHO, 2022. World Health Statistics, 2022: Monitoring Health for the SDGs, sustainable development goals, ISBN 978-92-4-005115-7 (print version).

Downloads

Published

2023-09-06

How to Cite

Wiyanti, W. (2023). Effectiveness of Single and Double Exponential Smoothing: SES, ARRSES and Holt’s Linear for Time Series Data Prediction with Trend and Non-seasonal Characteristic (Covid-19 Vaccinate Case): Efektivitas Metode Exponential Smoothing untuk Prediksi Data Runtun Waktu Pola Tren dan Non-musiman (Studi Kasus Cakupan Vaksinasi Covid-19). Jurnal Matematika, Statistika Dan Komputasi, 20(1), 52-64. https://doi.org/10.20956/j.v20i1.27193

Issue

Vol. 20 No. 1 (2023): SEPTEMBER, 2023

Section

Research Articles

License

Copyright (c) 2023 Author and publisher

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi is an Open Access journal, all articles are distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, allowing third parties to copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format, transform, and build upon the material, provided the original work is properly cited and states its license.  This license allows authors and readers to use all articles, data sets, graphics and appendices in data mining applications, search engines, web sites, blogs and other platforms by providing appropriate reference.